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Is there a bull in our future?

November 09, 2017

2017 Winter, 65% Chance for La Nina

According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report, producers, merchants and end users are a bit more bullish this year on natural gas versus last year as we enter the Nov-March winter period.  This class of trader is net long 41% compared to 39% in 2016.  The total net long positions equate to 747 bcf versus 1020 bcf for options and futures combined.*  The move is supported by predictions of a winter that may be colder than last year across the Northern Tier of the US thanks to a 65% chance of La Nina (NOAA).

*Henry Hub Swap. NYMEX  Natural Gas Swap, and Henry Hub Penultimate contracts