NOAA’s September 10 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion indicates that El Niño conditions continued to strengthen through early September and are expected to intensify further through the end of the year. NOAA assigns a greater than 90% probability to a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 and has increased the likelihood of a historic-strength event to 75%. NOAA defines a historic-strength event as one that could exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.

According to NOAA, ocean and atmospheric indicators remain consistent with a strengthening El Niño pattern, including exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures and continued ocean-atmosphere coupling. While stronger El Niño events are often associated with shifts in temperature, precipitation, and storm patterns, NOAA notes that regional impacts are not guaranteed and can vary significantly.

Seasonal climate patterns such as El Niño may influence regional weather trends across North America, affecting factors that energy market participants monitor throughout the winter season. However, seasonal outlooks reflect probabilities rather than forecasts of specific weather events or localized conditions.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion