NOAA and ERCOT outlooks indicate that Texas is expected to have an overall warmer and drier-than-normal winter into 2026, influenced by La Niña weather patterns. For January 2026, the peak hour risk is about 1.4%, far below previous winters, though occasional Arctic cold snaps could still occur particularly in northern regions. A 1.4% peak-hour risk indicates a minimal chance that supply could fall short during peak demand periods, useful for businesses evaluating operational or financial exposure during winter weather.

The grid faces a small risk of emergency conditions this winter due to two big factors: milder demand expectations and growth in battery storage.

While ERCOT has implemented significant improvements after events like Winter Storm Uri in 2021, recent reports suggest that extreme cold snaps could still strain generation resources. ERCOT emphasizes weatherization and resource adequacy planning, but businesses should remain proactive. Participating in demand response programs, securing backup generation, and monitoring real-time market conditions can help mitigate operational and financial risks.