The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook points to a welcome trend for U.S. drivers and businesses: retail gasoline prices are forecast to decline by about 6% in 2026, followed by a slight 1% increase in 2027. Even with that uptick, prices in 2027 are expected to remain below 2025 averages in most regions.

What’s driving this shift? Global crude oil prices are projected to fall to their lowest annual average since 2020 as supply growth outpaces demand. Historically, the price of crude oil accounts for more than half of the U.S. retail gasoline price, but in 2026–2027, its share is expected to dip below 45%.

One key regional story is the West Coast, where upcoming refinery closures could keep prices elevated compared to other regions. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast is expected to maintain the lowest prices nationwide.