NOAA’s May outlook shows an 82% chance that El Niño develops by early summer 2026.

El Niño, the recurring climate cycle characterized by warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, can have profound effects on weather patterns globally. El Niño years often coincide with record global heat. A hotter summer typically means higher power demand for cooling at the exact times the grid is under stress.

NOAA notes that while El Niño is likely to develop, there is still uncertainty around how strong it will be. Stronger events don’t guarantee extreme outcomes, but they do increase the likelihood of more intense and prolonged heat conditions.

Read more:  National Weather Service: Climate Prediction Center