A new milestone is emerging in the Texas power market. Utility-scale solar in ERCOT is forecast to reach ~78 billion kWh in 2026, surpassing coal (~60 billion kWh) for the first time.

Solar’s rise has happened steadily: utility‑scale solar generated 45 TWh in the first nine months of 2025—50% more than the same period in 2024—underscoring the pace of change now reflected in EIA’s 2026 outlook. (EIA STEO)

This marks a structural shift in incremental capacity, with solar leading new supply growth.

Read more: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook