Electricity prices across the US continue to reflect one dominant driver: natural gas volatility. New analysis from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab shows national retail electricity rates rose 23% from 2019–2024, closely mirroring swings in natural gas pricing. States most dependent on natural gas like New York saw the sharpest increases and subsequent price corrections.

In New York, gas‑fired generation supplies roughly half of the state’s electricity, making wholesale prices highly sensitive to fuel costs. After record-low wholesale prices in 2020, electricity surged to $89/MWh in 2022 as gas climbed from $1.64/MMBtu to $7.01/MMBtu. While prices eased after the 2022 spike, tight supply and rising export demand kept 2025 averages elevated at $74/MWh, nearly double 2024 levels.

Looking ahead, gas markets are expected to remain tight. LNG exports are forecast to grow to as much as 16 Bcf/day in 2026, exceeding US residential consumption and linking domestic prices more directly to global markets. At the same time, NYISO warns of shrinking supply margins as older generators retire faster than new projects come online – raising costs and increasing reliance on aging, less efficient units.

Read more: NYISO Whitepaper: Impact of National & Global Conditions on Electricity Prices in New York