Business Leaders Share Similar Outlook

August 13, 2025 

Independent surveys of business leaders, both large and small, show a consistent outlook on the US economy.

The Conference Board measure of CEO confidence rose to 49 in Q3 2025, up 15 points from Q2. The reading is near neutral at just below the equilibrium score of 50.  Scores above 50 indicate optimism. Below 50 implies pessimism.  The survey of 122 CEOS was conducted from July 14 to 28. 

The survey measures CEO expectations about future actions on capital spending, employment, recruiting, and wages. Conference Board analysts believe it is a trend and attribute the rebound to improving views on tariffs, which fell from the top concern to third following geopolitical instability and cyber risks. Fear of recession within the next 12-18 months eased dramatically to 36%, down from 83%.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down a fraction of a point to a level that is slightly above its 51-year average. The uncertainty index decreased by five points from May.

The net percent of small business owners expecting better business conditions fell three points from May but is still a positive reading and above the historic average.