Dallas Fed Survey: Negative Oil/Gas Outlook

July 08, 2025 

The second quarter survey of oil firms conducted by the Dallas Fed portrays an unhappy bunch. Almost 140 executives from energy firms, a majority from exploration and production operations, expressed a pessimistic view. The oil and gas sector contracted according to the sample. 

Survey participants in oil and gas production said production of both commodities turned negative in the second quarter. Oilfield services reported higher costs and deterioration of all indicators including operating margin.

Almost half of executives surveyed expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they planned at the start of the year. Nearly the same ratio do not expect the recent increase in steel tariffs to impact the number of wells drilled in the year’s remaining months.

Respondents expect a WTI oil price of $68 per barrel at year-end 2025. Responses ranged from $50 to $85 per barrel. Long-term expectations foresee an average of $72 per barrel two years from now and $77 per barrel five years from now. Survey participants foresee a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.66/mmbtu at year-end 2025. When asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they anticipate $4.12/mmbtu two years from now and $4.50/mmbtu five years from now.

For more: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2502