DOE: Retirements + Load Growth = Outages

July 14, 2025 

The retirement of 104 GW of firm power capacity by 2030 coupled with load growth may lead to significant outages during extreme conditions according to a new report from the Department of Energy. In a 2025 report, Evaluating the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid, the DOE states that without decisive intervention, the power grid will not be able to meet projected demand for manufacturing and data centers, resulting in a 100X increase in outages.

The report highlights a wide range of projections from credible sources regarding projected data center demand by 2030. From a low of 33 GW to a high of 109 GW, a midpoint of 50 GW is reached for projected data center load additions (see chart).

Stark contrasts across each ISO are highlighted. To ensure reliability, ERCOT and PJM would both require an additional 10,500 MW of “perfect” capacity. ISO-NE and NYISO require no additional capacity.

For more: DOE Final EO Report (FINAL JULY 7).pdf