Early Look at GDP

March 11, 2024

Is the U.S. economy resilient, or bound for recession?  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta offers an early look at U.S. GDP.  The GDPNow model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 1, down from 3.0 percent on February 29.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow. The estimate is based on the mathematical results of the model.

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay.

For more:

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow