Economic Slowdown

May 28, 2025 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2% on May 27, down from 2.4% on May 16.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has tumbled for the fifth consecutive month in April. LEI components include building permits, credit, consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, and unemployment claims. Despite the drop, LEI remains above recession levels.