EIA 2026 Forecasts

September 15, 2025 

The Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub natural gas spot price to rise from an average of $2.91/mmbtu in August to $3.70/mmbtu in 4Q25 and $4.30/mmbtu in 2026. Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports.

Due to rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices in 2026, EIA forecasts that crude oil will trade at its lowest premium to natural gas since 2005. As a result, drilling activity in the United States is expected to be more centered in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026. EIA expects U.S. natural gas production will be relatively flat in 2026 compared with 2025, while crude oil production will decline by about 1%.