EIA Nat Gas Forecast

May 16, 2022

EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average $8.59/MMBtu in the second half of 2022. High forecast natural gas prices reflect expectations that natural gas storage levels will remain less than the five-year (2017–2021) average this summer.

Lower-than-average storage levels partly result from limited opportunities for natural gas-to-coal switching for power generation, which EIA forecasts will keep demand for natural gas for power generation high despite high prices. EIA expects that U.S. LNG exports will remain high during the summer.

Henry Hub spot prices will average $4.74/MMBtu in 2023. The drop for 2023 reflects expectations that the rate of natural gas production will increase while LNG export and demand growth slow, contributing to higher storage levels in 2023 than in 2022.