GDP: 2025-2026 Updates

May 14, 2025 

The U.S. GDP forecast from EIA has been revised downwards from the April Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA now assumes real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2025, a 0.5 point reduction from the April STEO, and 1.6% in 2026.

The GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 was 2.3% on May 8, up from 2.2% on May 6.

Looking ahead, The Conference Board projects economic growth of 1.7% in 2026.  EIA sees it at 1.6% in 2026, a 0.4 point reduction from last month.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts the US economy to slow through the remainder of 2025 with annualized growth falling to 0.1% and a 40% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.

For more:  https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/us-economy-expected-stall-policy-changes-weigh-growth