IMF: Gloomy World GDP Outlook

April 30, 2025 

The IMF has published its latest world economic outlook and it isn’t pretty. After enduring a prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks, the global economy appears to have stabilized, with steady yet underwhelming growth rates, mostly below 2.0.

“Forecasts for global growth have been revised markedly down, reflecting effective tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January. Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook, amid escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments. Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could lead to even tighter global financial conditions. Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects,”

IMF expects global headline inflation to decline further with upward revisions possible in some countries. Emerging markets could see abrupt tightening. Demographic shifts threaten fiscal sustainability with potential social unrest triggered by high cost-of-living environments. Limits on international development assistance could send low-income countries deeper into debt with drops in living standards.