LNG Fundamentals to Flip

September 08, 2025 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) foresees a reversal of fortune for LNG with supply to increase the most since 2019.

IEA reports that between 2019 and August 2025, more than 340 bcm/yr of new LNG export capacity reached Financial Investment Decision (FID) status, averaging about 50 bcm/yr of new capacity annually. This is more than double the average annual rate of capacity approvals during the 2014–2018 period.

The United States has been the dominant driver of LNG liquefaction project FIDs, accounting for more than half of the total since 2019. Based on the latest ramp-up schedules, annual liquefaction capacity additions from post-FID projects are expected to progressively increase from around 33 bcm/yr in 2025 to a peak of more than 70 bcm/yr in 2027, before gradually declining over the 2028–2030 period. More than half of the incremental capacity in 2025 is expected to come from the ramp-up of the first phase of the Plaquemines LNG project in the United States, which is expected to reach full capacity over the course of 2025.

The shift is expected to have wide-ranging consequences for the global energy industry and consumers worldwide.  LNG oversupply could present a risk for the energy transition, potentially displacing renewable projects and energy efficiency measures.  However, LNG expansion projects are known to miss ramp-up schedules and the market is often subject to shocks.

For more:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-lng-capacity-tracker