PJM Sees Peak Demand Growth Rising At Slower Pace
January 02, 2014
PJM expects demand to grow at a slower pace than its forecasts a year ago, the RTO said in a report. It projected that average annual peak demand will grow at an annual rate of 1 percent for the next 10 years – compared with a 1.3 percent rate in the 10-year forecast issued a year ago. The main reason for the lower growth rate is the updated economic history that PJM gets from the Department of Commerce and the economic forecast it uses from Moody’s Analytics. Peak demand is expected to increase by 1.4 percent for the summer of 2014, to 157,399 MWs, up from last year’s 155,185 MWs. The RTO said its summer peak will be around 173,852 MWs in 2024, a 10-year rise of 16,453 MWs. The peak is expected to hit 180,137 MW in 2029, for a 15-year growth of 22,738 MWs. Winter-peak load growth is projected to average 0.9 percent annually over the next 10 years and 0.8 percent over the next 15. With the new numbers, PJM lowered its forecast for the 2014 peak by 0.8 percent, or 1,318 MWs. The peak demand forecast for the delivery year to be procured in the next auction, 2017, was cut 2,777 MWs, or 1.7 percent, from last year's projections.