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Winter Weather Ahead

December 12, 2022

US Weather Map

The latest 8-14 day outlook from NOAA shows the arrival of below normal temperatures for late December. However, the uptick in heating demand could be a short-lived. NOAA forecasts for December 2022 through February 2023 suggest a 50% to 80% likelihood of higher-than-average temperatures in Texas, and the Eastern Seaboard.

Even though natural gas production growth will likely outpace domestic natural gas demand growth in winter 2022-2023, forecasts anticipate that continued growth in net exports, including LNG exports, will place additional pressure on natural gas prices this winter. Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts are averaging $6.82/mmbtu for winter 2022-2023, up 30% from last winter’s settled price.